Forthcoming Articles

International Yield Co-Movements

Geert Bekaert and Andrey Ermolov

We decompose long-term nominal bond yields into real and inflation components in an international context using inflation-linked and nominal bonds. In contrast to extant results, real rate variation dominates the variation in inflation-linked and nominal yields. Cross-country nominal and inflation-linked yield correlations have declined since the Great Recession. Real rates are the main source of the correlation between nominal yields. Our results are robust to various alternative measurements of inflation expectations and the liquidity premium. They continue to hold when a no-arbitrage term structure model with real, nominal, and inflation factors is used to effect the yield decomposition.

Who Supplies PPP Loans (and Does It Matter)? Banks, Relationships and the COVID Crisis

Lei Li and Philip E. Strahan

We analyze bank supply of credit under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The literature emphasizes relationships as a means to improve lender information, which helps banks manage credit risk. Despite imposing no risk, however, PPP supply reflects traditional measures of relationship lending: decreasing in bank size; increasing in prior experience, in commitment lending, and in core deposits. Our results suggest a new benefit of bank relationships, as they help firms access government-subsidized lending. Consistent with this benefit, we show that bank PPP supply, based on the structure of the local banking sector, alleviates increases in unemployment.

Equity Trading Activity and Treasury Bond Risk Premia

Stefanie Schraeder, Elvira Sojli, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, and Wing Wah Tham

We link equity and treasury bond markets via an informational channel. When macroeconomic state shifts are more probable, informed traders are more likely to have valid signals about fundamentals, so that uninformed traders are less willing to trade against informed ones. This implies low volume and high volatility, i.e., a high volatility-volume ratio (VVR). Central banks react to state shifts, but their actions are uncertain. Therefore, a higher state shift likelihood implies larger bond risk premia. These arguments together imply that VVR should positively predict bond excess returns. We empirically test and confirm this prediction, both in- and out-of-sample.

7/16/2021

Shadow Banking in a Crisis: Evidence from FinTech During COVID-19

Zhengyang Bao and Difang Huang

We analyze lending by traditional and FinTech lenders during COVID-19. Comparing samples of FinTech and bank loan records across the outbreak, we find that FinTech companies are more likely to expand credit access to new and financially constrained borrowers after the start of the pandemic. However, this increased credit provision may be unsustainable; the delinquency rate of FinTech loans triples after the outbreak, but there is no significant change in bank loans. Borrowers holding both loan types prioritize bank loan repayments. These results shed light on the benefits of shadow banking and the potential fragility of such institutions.

Institutional Investors, Households, and the Time-Variation in Expected Stock Returns

Rüdiger Weber

I document a new stylized fact: The higher the degree of institutional ownership (IO) in a portfolio, the more time-varying expected returns rather than changes in expected cash flows drive changes in its valuation. Empirical evidence suggests that institutions’ time-varying sensitivity to the risk of holding stocks translates into time-varying expected returns on high-IO stocks. In my model, imperfect risk sharing between different types of investors generates cross-sectional differences in return predictability based on ownership, even among a priori identical stocks. My findings suggest an economic rationale for weak return predictability of small stocks and predictability reversals of stocks and REITs.

Language Skills and Stock Market Participation: Evidence from Immigrants

Xu Gan, Frank M. Song, and Yang Zhou

Do language skills affect investment decisions? This paper addresses this question by identifying the effect of English proficiency on the stock market participation of immigrants in the United States and Australia. To establish causality, we construct an instrumental variable for English proficiency by exploiting the phenomenon that younger children acquire languages more easily than older children. We find that English proficiency has a significant positive effect on stock ownership among immigrants in both countries. Moreover, we provide evidence that a reduction in information costs and an increase in trust may serve as the mechanisms underlying the language ability effect.

Mining the Short Side: Institutional Investors and Stock Market Anomalies

Xin Gao and Ying Wang

This paper investigates the short-side anomaly trading behavior of alternative mutual funds (AMFs) based on their short positions in U.S. domestic equities. In aggregate, AMFs demonstrate the ability to exploit well-documented stock market anomalies on the short side, and the overpriced stocks sold short by AMFs generate significant negative alpha. Further, AMFs’ short-side trades exhibit significant return predictability, which can at least partially derive from their ability to process public information on firm and anomaly characteristics. Finally, AMFs’ short-side anomaly-based trading activity and profitability appear to be more pronounced among the stocks with higher credit risk or dynamic short-selling risk.

Liquidation, Bailout, and Bail-In: Insolvency Resolution Mechanisms and Bank Lending

We present a dynamic, continuous-time model in which risk averse inside equityholders set a bank’s lending, payout, and financing policies, and the exposure of bank assets to crashes. We examine whether bailouts encourage excessive lending and risk-taking compared to liquidation or bail-ins with debt-to-equity conversion or debt write-downs. The effects of the prevailing insolvency resolution mechanism (IRM) on the probability of insolvency, loss in default, and the bank’s value suggest no single IRM is a panacea. We show how a bailout fund financed through a tax on bank dividends resolves bailouts without public money and without distorting insiders’ incentives.

Bart M. Lambrecht and Alex S. L. Tse