Federal ID: 91-6001537
ISSN: 0022-1090 (Print) | 1756-6916 (Online)
Equity Premium Predictability over the Business Cycle
Emanuel Moench and Tobias Stein ♦ Equity returns follow a pronounced V-shape pattern around the onset of recessions. They sharply drop into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recover as the recession unfolds. Recessions are typically…