COVID-19 Vaccinations, Business Activity, and Firm Value

John M. Bizjak, Swaminathan L. Kalpathy, Vassil T. Mihov, and Jue Ren

♦ Using establishment-level data, we show that COVID-19 vaccinations boost business activity and firm performance in the United States. A 10% increase in vaccination rates results in a 4% to 6% increase in customer visits. We document the channels through which vaccinations increase store visits and the limits to the effect of vaccines on business activity. At the firm level, vaccinations increase sales and earnings, impact expansion decisions, and decrease probability of default, but the benefits vary across businesses. Vaccinations create private economic benefits to firms, shareholders and employees, in addition to their intended public health benefits.

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